A little bit of everything

Category: General

The bonanza after the tempest

Some events made me think:

Good things will arise from the turmoil

Is it true? It must be.
Someone made very stupid comments about a very serious matter. I’m not even going to comment on what was said. However, because of some absurd declarations  I’ve seen very beautiful things written. I’ve read great posts, great articles and great stories.
Which led me to the conclusion that good things can and do come out of the turmoil… You just have to harvest a little.

Don’t play against the odds

Some friends and I have a betting pool for the football games, every weekend.

One of us, chooses 10 games each week, writes them down, and all the others bet on the results for each weekend. It’s a very straightforward competition, which allow us to joke around and to mock at each others, bragging on our superior football knowledge. It actually reminds me of my childhood days. Back then, there was this guy in my building who did the same thing for the european competition’s games.

Back to my current betting pool: no money involved; the only thing involved is pride…

As usual, everybody actually tries to figure out the result of every game. And that, more often than not, leads to one consequence: people tend to bet according to 1) their wishes; 2) the result each team got the week before.

On one side, we (yes, I am always tempted to this option too) want our team to win; we always want our rivals to loose. But as a consequence we are betting on what we would wish to happen, not on what we think will happen. Usually, the outcome is worst when we bet this way.

On the other side, we are pretty much biased by the previous week result. Not because we develop an advanced statistical tools that will help us analyze the trends on each team’s results. But because we believe that the outcome of the game this week is somehow related with the results that happened last week. And although on the long term there might be a trend, there are better ways to establish that trend than to consider this week results will be some sort of emulation of what happened the week before.

This year I decided to play with a different strategy. I played (almost) exclusively with the odds. I didn’t care what were my expectations for the game. What were my preferences. What were the results of the previous week or weeks. I just looked at the two teams involved in each game and analyzed what would be the most common result. I said I played almost exclusively with the odds, because there were exceptions: the derbies. Those games against our arch-rivals. On those games I was not able to bet on anything but my team’s victory. Even if that was not the most common outcome.

And I won! Everyone else let their emotions ruin their rationale. And so, many times they failed their prognostics on games for which they knew the most probable outcome was not the one they were betting on.

My conclusion? It keeps happening in business. People act, manage, decide, based on the outcome they would like would happen, and not on the outcome that rationally they think will happen. And, obviously, they miserably fail. On the other hand, entrepreneurs, businessman and managers who base their actions not on impulses or hunches, but on judgement and sagacity, make the most out of their business. Let’s hope we can do it 🙂

Tell me what you listen to, I’ll tell you who you are…

Update of the week: Tell me what kind of music you listen to, and I’ll tell you who you are.

These were the words I used to comment an entry on Facebook from an old friend of mine, where she linked to the video of a great music. Obvisously what I meant was to make a relation between the good music my friend was proposing and who she was – a good person, according to the statement above.

Today, as I was listening to a very good music while walking to the office, I began thinking if it wasn’t a two way road: yes, I can tell somethings about some one by the music she listens to; but one can also change herself by listening to different kinds of music. I’m pretty sure we all have examples of our mood changing because we heard a great vibrant music on the radio that made us happy, or powerful, and that boosted us for the day, right?

I guess, I’ll have to change my saying to:

Tell me who you want to be, and I’ll tell you what music to listen to.

Social networks and Pinterest

Everyday a new social network comes into our world. Some of us don’t even look at what it means, others look at it and try to understand what does it mean (business wise).

What really interests those who look at these new social networks – and try to figure out which ones will be here in one year, which ones will be sold by one billion dollars or which ones will just be abandoned – is what these new “things” can do for us: the person or the business.

Pinterest is the new big thing. Or at least it seems like it. As someone was telling me the other day, “whatever business model you can think of, Pinterest is able to implement it. It will definitely work out for them.” Maybe so…

One of the big discussions is should sellers attach (or not) the price tag to their pins? Mashable refers a study from Pinreach about this.

But what struck me was that options like this might not only harm or boost whoever chooses to attach a price tag to it. If everybody begins attaching the price tag, Pinterest will become a marketplace, right? And my guess is that’s not what people like about it…

Jeff Bezos on Invention, Creativity & Platforms

We are living wonderful times for those who want to create…

Why did I start this blog?

That’s a damn good question.

I like to write. I’ve always written my thoughts on several different platforms.

I think it’s important to write down your thoughts for you to see them flourish. I think it’s important to speak them out loud to actually understand if they’re good or bad. And I think it’s the best way to “clean the dust” out of those thoughts.

So I didn’t start the blog because I have a very important message to put through. I didn’t start this blog because I have big thoughts and it would be a shame if I wouldn’t share them with the world. On the contrary, I’m not even sure if there’s something here worth for you to read. Although I hope so, it will be for you to decide.

I started this blog out of self-interest. Sorry to tell you this, but I think I should state my interests upfront. I guess it will save me from the law suits 🙂

There are two main reasons why I think speaking out loud helps me improve my reasoning on things:

1. It always helps to share my thoughts with someone.

I usually do it with my business partner. And I’m not even talking about listening to other person’s arguments, thoughts and ideas. I’m just saying that it’s easier to evaluate my ideas and thoughts if I “listen” to them. Even when it’s coming from my own mouth. It definitely happens to me. I usually tell my friends that for this particular aspect I don’t even need them to actually listen to me. I joke that I’ll just print their silhouette in hard card and speak to their figure, because that’s just it. I just need to listen to what I’m saying. Most of the times, that’s enough to understand if there’s something on my ideas or not…

2. It’s good to hear other arguments on any thought you have.

And that’s only possible if you tell someone what you’re thinking. It enhances the good ideas. And it helps me understand why some ideas are bad. It puts my reasoning to the test. Let’s me know which are the counter-arguments. Allows me to analyze those arguments, and think about them. On the other hand, if the idea is of some value it helps me to grow its power. Others’ opinions will build on it, and will strengthen the original concept.

So, this blog is my “hard card silhouette”. In here I’ll test my ideas and try to understand if there’s some value in them or not.

This means that most things I’ll write here might be wrong. Many things will definitely be wrong. But for the sake of the blog, even when I find this out, I won’t delete them. They’ll be here, for anyone to be able to read them and comment on them. I may eventually write a new post on the same subject to clarify my position or my developments on something. Or not.

For all this, I’m sorry, and I hope you apologize me for the frailty of what you can read here… but al least I’m honest about it, right?

I also hope, you will help me with the second part – your arguments. I long for your critiques to my ideas.

I guess this is a pretty straightforward disclaimer. None of what you’ll find here is an advice. None of what you’ll read here is the word of an expert.

But in the end, we can both become a little bit more knowledgeable about something 🙂

Welcome, let’s get started!

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